Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2011-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2011-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-Q1 vs 2010-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-17)
core_pce: 1.12 → 1.21 +0.09 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 2.10 +0.40 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-17)
gdp: -0.90 → 3.10 +4.00 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-25)
pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 61.40 +4.80 (2010-12-01 → 2011-03-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 59.70 +4.70 (2010-12-03 → 2011-03-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-01-02 → 2011-03-27)
slope_2s10s: 2.69 → 2.67 -0.02 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)
unemployment: 9.10 → 8.90 -0.20 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-04)
yield_10y: 3.30 → 3.46 +0.16 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)
yield_2y: 0.61 → 0.79 +0.18 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)

China

cpi_yoy: 5.10 → 4.90 -0.20 (2010-12-11 → 2011-03-11)
pmi_mfg: 52.90 → 53.40 +0.50 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)
pmi_svc: 58.80 → 57.00 -1.80 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.71 +0.20 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)
yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.87 -0.01 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)
yield_2y: 3.37 → 3.16 -0.21 (2010-12-31 → 2011-03-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 2.40 +0.50 (2010-12-16 → 2011-03-16)
gdp: 0.60 → 0.40 -0.20 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)
pmi_mfg: 56.80 → 57.70 +0.90 (2010-12-16 → 2011-03-24)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 56.90 +3.20 (2010-12-16 → 2011-03-24)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2010-12-02 → 2011-03-03)
unemployment: 10.10 → 9.90 -0.20 (2010-11-30 → 2011-03-01)
yield_10y: 3.93 → 4.49 +0.56 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.90 → -1.30 -0.40 (2010-12-26 → 2011-02-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.10 → -0.60 -0.70 (2010-12-26 → 2011-02-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-12-21 → 2011-03-14)
unemployment: 5.00 → 4.80 -0.20 (2010-12-30 → 2011-03-01)
yield_10y: 1.21 → 1.21 +0.00 (2011-01-01 → 2011-03-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W05 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W52 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose