Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2011-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2011-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-Q4 vs 2011-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×8 policy_easing
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
M13 ×2 contraction_easing

Japan

M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.20 +0.03 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-16)
core_pce: 1.74 → 1.97 +0.23 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.52 → 3.40 -0.12 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-15)
gdp: 4.60 → 1.80 -2.80 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 52.70 +2.10 (2011-09-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.30 → 52.00 -1.30 (2011-09-06 → 2011-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-10-02 → 2011-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.67 → 1.75 +0.08 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)
unemployment: 8.80 → 8.60 -0.20 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-02)
yield_10y: 1.92 → 2.03 +0.11 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.28 +0.03 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 6.20 → 4.20 -2.00 (2011-09-09 → 2011-12-09)
gdp: 9.50 → 9.10 -0.40 (2011-07-13 → 2011-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 50.30 -0.10 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.80 → 55.90 +0.10 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.19 → 0.63 +0.44 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)
yield_10y: 3.86 → 3.48 -0.38 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)
yield_2y: 3.67 → 2.85 -0.82 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2011-09-30 → 2011-12-15)
gdp: 0.80 → 0.10 -0.70 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_mfg: 48.40 → 46.90 -1.50 (2011-09-22 → 2011-12-15)
pmi_svc: 49.10 → 48.30 -0.80 (2011-09-22 → 2011-12-15)
policy_rate: 1.50 → 1.00 -0.50 (2011-09-08 → 2011-12-08)
unemployment: 10.00 → 10.30 +0.30 (2011-09-30 → 2011-11-30)
yield_10y: 4.08 → 4.09 +0.01 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.50 → -1.00 -0.50 (2011-09-25 → 2011-11-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.20 -0.40 (2011-09-25 → 2011-11-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-09-07 → 2011-12-21)
unemployment: 4.50 → 4.40 -0.10 (2011-09-29 → 2011-11-29)
yield_10y: 1.04 → 0.97 -0.07 (2011-10-01 → 2011-12-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W47 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W39 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose