Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2011-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2011-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-Q2 vs 2011-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle · W22: overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

no fires

China

no fires

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike
M4 ×4 policy_tightening

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.30 +0.18 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-15)
core_pce: 1.39 → 1.59 +0.20 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.08 → 3.60 +0.52 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-14)
gdp: 2.70 → 1.90 -0.80 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-24)
pmi_mfg: 61.20 → 53.50 -7.70 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_svc: 59.70 → 54.60 -5.10 (2011-03-03 → 2011-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-04-03 → 2011-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 2.66 → 2.53 -0.13 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-24)
unemployment: 9.10 → 9.10 0.00 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-03)
yield_10y: 3.46 → 2.88 -0.58 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-24)
yield_2y: 0.80 → 0.35 -0.45 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 4.90 → 5.50 +0.60 (2011-03-11 → 2011-06-14)
gdp: 9.80 → 9.70 -0.10 (2011-01-20 → 2011-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 52.90 → 50.90 -2.00 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_svc: 59.20 → 58.70 -0.50 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.77 → 0.31 -0.45 (2011-04-02 → 2011-06-24)
yield_10y: 3.91 → 3.90 -0.01 (2011-04-02 → 2011-06-24)
yield_2y: 3.14 → 3.58 +0.44 (2011-04-02 → 2011-06-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2011-03-31 → 2011-06-16)
gdp: 1.40 → 0.00 -1.40 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 52.00 -5.50 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-23)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 54.20 -2.70 (2011-03-24 → 2011-06-23)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.25 +0.25 (2011-03-03 → 2011-06-09)
unemployment: 9.90 → 9.90 0.00 (2011-04-01 → 2011-05-31)
yield_10y: 4.66 → 4.37 -0.29 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.30 → -0.80 +0.50 (2011-03-28 → 2011-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.40 +0.10 (2011-03-28 → 2011-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-03-14 → 2011-06-14)
unemployment: 4.70 → 4.70 0.00 (2011-04-01 → 2011-05-30)
yield_10y: 1.22 → 1.08 -0.13 (2011-04-01 → 2011-06-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W14 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose