Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2011-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2011-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-Q3 vs 2011-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → stall-speed, at target

W29: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W30: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M4 ×4 policy_tightening

Japan

M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-15)
core_pce: 1.73 → 1.85 +0.12 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.58 → 3.80 +0.22 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-14)
gdp: -0.10 → 1.00 +1.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-08-26)
pmi_mfg: 55.30 → 50.60 -4.70 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)
pmi_svc: 54.60 → 53.30 -1.30 (2011-06-03 → 2011-09-06)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-07-03 → 2011-09-25)
slope_2s10s: 2.72 → 1.61 -1.11 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)
unemployment: 9.00 → 9.10 +0.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-02)
yield_10y: 3.22 → 1.84 -1.38 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)
yield_2y: 0.50 → 0.23 -0.27 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 5.50 → 6.20 +0.70 (2011-06-14 → 2011-09-09)
gdp: 9.70 → 9.50 -0.20 (2011-04-15 → 2011-07-13)
pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 51.20 +0.50 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)
pmi_svc: 56.60 → 57.10 +0.50 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.14 -0.29 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)
yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.97 +0.09 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)
yield_2y: 3.44 → 3.82 +0.38 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.50 -0.20 (2011-06-30 → 2011-09-15)
gdp: 0.00 → 0.20 +0.20 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)
pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 48.40 -3.60 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-22)
pmi_svc: 54.20 → 49.10 -5.10 (2011-06-23 → 2011-09-22)
policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.50 +0.25 (2011-06-09 → 2011-09-08)
unemployment: 9.90 → 10.00 +0.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-08-31)
yield_10y: 4.60 → 4.03 -0.56 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.80 → -0.50 +0.30 (2011-06-25 → 2011-09-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.40 → 0.20 +0.60 (2011-06-25 → 2011-09-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-06-14 → 2011-09-07)
unemployment: 4.60 → 4.70 +0.10 (2011-06-29 → 2011-08-29)
yield_10y: 1.07 → 0.97 -0.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-09-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W27 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W32 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose