Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2023

Yearly aggregate · 53 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glanceweekly archive →
Yearly

2023 — 53 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023 vs 2022, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 53 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
W05: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W40: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W44: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
China
stall-speed, at target → deflation watch
W05: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W09: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target · W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W19: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W04: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W12: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W48: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×53 curve_inversion
  • M13 ×22 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×21 growth_slowdown
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M6 ×19 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
Euro area
  • M4 ×43 policy_tightening
  • M9 ×18 yield_spike
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×6 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M1 ×17 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×14 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.41 → 0.30 -0.11 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-12)
  • core_pce: 4.94 → 3.20 -1.74 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 6.33 → 3.10 -3.23 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-12)
  • fx: 103.52 → 101.33 -2.19 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: 2.90 → 4.90 +2.00 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 46.70 -2.30 (2022-12-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 56.50 → 52.70 -3.80 (2022-12-05 → 2023-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 5.50 +1.00 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-31)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.53 → -0.35 +0.18 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • unemployment: 3.50 → 3.70 +0.20 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-08)
  • yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.88 0.00 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • yield_2y: 4.41 → 4.23 -0.18 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → -0.50 -2.10 (2022-12-09 → 2023-12-09)
  • fx: 6.96 → 7.11 +0.14 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: 3.90 → 4.90 +1.00 (2022-10-24 → 2023-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 49.00 -1.10 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 41.60 → 50.40 +8.80 (2022-12-31 → 2023-12-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.45 -0.20 (2022-12-20 → 2023-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.48 → 0.35 -0.14 (2022-12-31 → 2023-12-31)
  • unemployment: 5.50 → 5.10 -0.40 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.84 → 2.56 -0.28 (2022-12-31 → 2023-12-31)
  • yield_2y: 2.35 → 2.21 -0.14 (2022-12-31 → 2023-12-31)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 10.10 → 2.40 -7.70 (2022-12-16 → 2023-12-19)
  • fx: 1.07 → 1.11 +0.04 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: -0.10 → -0.60 -0.50 (2022-12-16 → 2023-12-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.80 → 44.20 -3.60 (2022-12-16 → 2023-12-15)
  • pmi_svc: 49.10 → 48.10 -1.00 (2022-12-16 → 2023-12-15)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 4.50 +2.00 (2022-12-15 → 2023-12-14)
  • unemployment: 6.50 → 6.50 0.00 (2022-12-01 → 2023-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.04 → 2.86 -0.18 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.50 → 2.70 +1.20 (2022-12-23 → 2023-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.80 → 2.80 -1.00 (2022-12-23 → 2023-12-22)
  • fx: 132.92 → 141.43 +8.51 (2022-12-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-12-20 → 2023-12-19)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2022-12-27 → 2023-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 0.49 → 0.62 +0.13 (2023-01-01 → 2023-12-01)

Busiest week: 2023-W35 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W44 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2023-Q1
quarterly board
2023-Q2
quarterly board
2023-Q3
quarterly board
2023-Q4
quarterly board