Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2023-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2023-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-Q3 vs 2023-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stagflationary · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stagflationary · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×13 curve_inversion
M13 ×8 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M3 ×7 policy_easing
M11 ×7 china_credit_impulse
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M4 ×13 policy_tightening
M9 ×9 yield_spike
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
M13 ×1 contraction_easing

Japan

M9 ×9 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.30 +0.09 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-13)
core_pce: 4.30 → 3.69 -0.61 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.29 → 3.70 +0.41 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-13)
fx: 102.91 → 105.58 +2.67 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
gdp: 4.70 → 2.10 -2.60 (2023-07-01 → 2023-08-30)
pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 47.60 +0.70 (2023-06-01 → 2023-09-01)
pmi_svc: 50.30 → 54.50 +4.20 (2023-06-05 → 2023-09-06)
policy_rate: 5.25 → 5.50 +0.25 (2023-07-02 → 2023-09-24)
slope_2s10s: -1.06 → -0.66 +0.40 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.70 +0.20 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)
yield_10y: 3.81 → 4.44 +0.63 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
yield_2y: 4.87 → 5.10 +0.23 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2023-06-09 → 2023-09-09)
fx: 7.25 → 7.31 +0.05 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
gdp: 4.50 → 6.30 +1.80 (2023-04-18 → 2023-07-17)
pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.20 +0.90 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)
pmi_svc: 53.20 → 51.00 -2.20 (2023-06-30 → 2023-08-31)
policy_rate: 3.55 → 3.45 -0.10 (2023-06-20 → 2023-09-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.39 -0.10 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
unemployment: 5.30 → 5.00 -0.30 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)
yield_10y: 2.64 → 2.68 +0.04 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
yield_2y: 2.14 → 2.28 +0.14 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 5.50 → 5.20 -0.30 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-19)
fx: 1.09 → 1.07 -0.02 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-19)
pmi_mfg: 43.60 → 43.40 -0.20 (2023-06-23 → 2023-09-22)
pmi_svc: 52.40 → 48.40 -4.00 (2023-06-23 → 2023-09-22)
policy_rate: 4.00 → 4.50 +0.50 (2023-06-15 → 2023-09-14)
unemployment: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2023-06-30 → 2023-08-31)
yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.50 +0.24 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2023-06-23 → 2023-09-22)
cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 3.20 0.00 (2023-06-23 → 2023-09-22)
fx: 144.78 → 147.64 +2.86 (2023-06-30 → 2023-09-22)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2023-06-16 → 2023-09-22)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2023-06-30 → 2023-08-29)
yield_10y: 0.59 → 0.77 +0.17 (2023-07-01 → 2023-09-01)

Busiest week: 2023-W35 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W31 (4 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose