Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2023-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2023-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-Q2 vs 2023-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stagflationary · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W19: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Euro area

stagflationary · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×13 curve_inversion
M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
M3 ×1 policy_easing
M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M4 ×13 policy_tightening
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×12 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.45 → 0.40 -0.05 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-13)
core_pce: 4.79 → 4.38 -0.41 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 4.95 → 4.00 -0.95 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-13)
fx: 102.51 → 102.90 +0.39 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
gdp: 2.50 → 1.30 -1.20 (2023-04-01 → 2023-05-25)
pmi_mfg: 47.70 → 46.90 -0.80 (2023-03-01 → 2023-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.10 → 50.30 -4.80 (2023-03-03 → 2023-06-05)
policy_rate: 5.00 → 5.25 +0.25 (2023-04-02 → 2023-06-25)
slope_2s10s: -0.58 → -0.97 -0.39 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
unemployment: 3.40 → 3.70 +0.30 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-02)
yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.74 +0.26 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
yield_2y: 4.06 → 4.71 +0.65 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 0.20 -0.80 (2023-03-09 → 2023-06-09)
fx: 6.87 → 7.18 +0.31 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
gdp: 2.90 → 4.50 +1.60 (2023-01-17 → 2023-04-18)
pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 49.00 -0.20 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-01)
pmi_svc: 58.20 → 54.50 -3.70 (2023-03-31 → 2023-05-31)
policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.55 -0.10 (2023-03-20 → 2023-06-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.46 → 0.48 +0.02 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-25)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.20 0.00 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.85 → 2.66 -0.20 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-25)
yield_2y: 2.39 → 2.18 -0.21 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 6.90 → 6.10 -0.80 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-16)
fx: 1.09 → 1.10 +0.01 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
gdp: 0.90 → 0.00 -0.90 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 47.10 → 43.60 -3.50 (2023-03-24 → 2023-06-23)
pmi_svc: 55.60 → 52.40 -3.20 (2023-03-24 → 2023-06-23)
policy_rate: 3.50 → 4.00 +0.50 (2023-03-16 → 2023-06-15)
unemployment: 6.60 → 6.50 -0.10 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.19 → 3.16 -0.03 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.90 → 2.60 +0.70 (2023-02-24 → 2023-06-23)
cpi_yoy: 4.30 → 3.20 -1.10 (2023-02-24 → 2023-06-23)
fx: 133.20 → 143.03 +9.83 (2023-03-31 → 2023-06-23)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2023-03-10 → 2023-06-16)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2023-03-31 → 2023-05-30)
yield_10y: 0.39 → 0.40 +0.01 (2023-04-01 → 2023-06-01)

Busiest week: 2023-W13 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W22 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose