Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2023-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 14 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2023-Q4 — 14 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-Q4 vs 2023-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 14 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stagflationary · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stagflationary → disinflationary stall

W48: stagflationary → disinflationary stall

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×14 curve_inversion
M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M6 ×10 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M4 ×4 policy_tightening
M13 ×3 contraction_easing
M6 ×1 growth_slowdown

Japan

M9 ×5 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-12)
core_pce: 3.47 → 3.20 -0.27 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 3.25 → 3.10 -0.15 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-12)
fx: 106.17 → 101.33 -4.84 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
gdp: 3.40 → 4.90 +1.50 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-21)
pmi_mfg: 47.60 → 46.70 -0.90 (2023-09-01 → 2023-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.50 → 52.70 -1.80 (2023-09-06 → 2023-12-05)
policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-31)
slope_2s10s: -0.44 → -0.35 +0.09 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
unemployment: 3.90 → 3.70 -0.20 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-08)
yield_10y: 4.59 → 3.88 -0.71 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
yield_2y: 5.03 → 4.23 -0.80 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.10 → -0.50 -0.60 (2023-09-09 → 2023-12-09)
fx: 7.30 → 7.11 -0.19 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
gdp: 6.30 → 4.90 -1.40 (2023-07-17 → 2023-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 49.00 -0.50 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-01)
pmi_svc: 51.70 → 50.40 -1.30 (2023-09-30 → 2023-12-31)
policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.45 0.00 (2023-09-20 → 2023-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.35 -0.05 (2023-09-28 → 2023-12-31)
unemployment: 5.00 → 5.10 +0.10 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.68 → 2.56 -0.12 (2023-09-28 → 2023-12-31)
yield_2y: 2.28 → 2.21 -0.07 (2023-09-28 → 2023-12-31)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 4.30 → 2.40 -1.90 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-19)
fx: 1.06 → 1.11 +0.05 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
gdp: 0.30 → -0.60 -0.90 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-19)
pmi_mfg: 43.40 → 44.20 +0.80 (2023-09-22 → 2023-12-15)
pmi_svc: 48.40 → 48.10 -0.30 (2023-09-22 → 2023-12-15)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2023-09-14 → 2023-12-14)
unemployment: 6.40 → 6.50 +0.10 (2023-08-31 → 2023-11-30)
yield_10y: 3.72 → 2.86 -0.86 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.70 → 2.70 0.00 (2023-09-22 → 2023-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 2.80 -0.40 (2023-09-22 → 2023-12-22)
fx: 149.34 → 141.43 -7.91 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-29)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2023-09-22 → 2023-12-19)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2023-09-29 → 2023-12-26)
yield_10y: 0.95 → 0.62 -0.33 (2023-10-01 → 2023-12-01)

Busiest week: 2023-W39 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W44 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose