Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2022

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2022 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022 vs 2021, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W07: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W17: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W32: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W36: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W41: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W45: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W48: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
Japan
disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
W12: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle · W16: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W20: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W38: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×26 curve_inversion
  • M1 ×13 inflation_surprise_up
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×6 yield_spike
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
  • M6 ×26 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×12 policy_easing
  • M11 ×12 china_credit_impulse
  • M13 ×9 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×35 yield_spike
  • M4 ×23 policy_tightening
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×3 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×27 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.55 → 0.20 -0.35 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-13)
  • core_pce: 5.36 → 4.70 -0.66 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 7.56 → 7.10 -0.46 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-13)
  • fx: 95.67 → 104.31 +8.64 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • gdp: -1.00 → 3.20 +4.20 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 61.10 → 49.00 -12.10 (2021-12-01 → 2022-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 69.10 → 56.50 -12.60 (2021-12-03 → 2022-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 4.50 +4.25 (2022-01-02 → 2022-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.79 → -0.56 -1.35 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 3.70 -0.30 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 1.52 → 3.75 +2.23 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.73 → 4.31 +3.58 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 1.60 -0.70 (2021-12-09 → 2022-12-09)
  • fx: 6.37 → 6.98 +0.61 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 3.90 -1.00 (2021-10-18 → 2022-10-24)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 47.00 -3.10 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 52.70 → 46.70 -6.00 (2021-12-31 → 2022-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.80 → 3.65 -0.15 (2021-12-20 → 2022-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.48 +0.07 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.50 +0.20 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.78 → 2.83 +0.05 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.37 → 2.35 -0.02 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 4.90 → 10.10 +5.20 (2021-12-17 → 2022-12-16)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.06 -0.07 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • gdp: 0.40 → -0.10 -0.50 (2021-12-17 → 2022-12-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.00 → 47.80 -10.20 (2021-12-16 → 2022-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 49.10 -4.20 (2021-12-16 → 2022-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 2.50 +2.50 (2021-12-16 → 2022-12-15)
  • unemployment: 7.30 → 6.50 -0.80 (2021-12-02 → 2022-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 0.53 → 3.00 +2.46 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → 1.50 +2.70 (2021-12-24 → 2022-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 3.80 +3.20 (2021-12-24 → 2022-12-23)
  • fx: 115.06 → 132.36 +17.29 (2021-12-31 → 2022-12-23)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-12-17 → 2022-12-20)
  • unemployment: 2.80 → 2.60 -0.20 (2021-12-28 → 2022-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 0.17 → 0.41 +0.24 (2022-01-01 → 2022-12-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W35 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W08 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2022-Q1
quarterly board
2022-Q2
quarterly board
2022-Q3
quarterly board
2022-Q4
quarterly board