Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2022-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2022-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-Q4 vs 2022-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W41: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W45: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W48: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×13 curve_inversion
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

China

M6 ×13 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M4 ×13 policy_tightening
M9 ×5 yield_spike
M13 ×3 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×12 inflation_surprise_up
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.39 → 0.20 -0.19 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-13)
core_pce: 5.46 → 4.70 -0.76 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 7.76 → 7.10 -0.66 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-13)
fx: 112.12 → 104.31 -7.81 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 2.80 → 3.20 +0.40 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 52.80 → 49.00 -3.80 (2022-09-01 → 2022-12-01)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 56.50 -0.40 (2022-09-06 → 2022-12-05)
policy_rate: 3.25 → 4.50 +1.25 (2022-10-02 → 2022-12-25)
slope_2s10s: -0.39 → -0.56 -0.17 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
unemployment: 3.60 → 3.70 +0.10 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-02)
yield_10y: 3.83 → 3.75 -0.08 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
yield_2y: 4.22 → 4.31 +0.09 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 1.60 -0.90 (2022-09-09 → 2022-12-09)
fx: 7.12 → 6.98 -0.14 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 0.40 → 3.90 +3.50 (2022-07-15 → 2022-10-24)
pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 47.00 -2.20 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-01)
pmi_svc: 50.60 → 46.70 -3.90 (2022-09-30 → 2022-11-30)
policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.65 0.00 (2022-09-20 → 2022-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.62 → 0.48 -0.15 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
unemployment: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.76 → 2.83 +0.07 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
yield_2y: 2.14 → 2.35 +0.21 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 10.00 → 10.10 +0.10 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-16)
fx: 0.98 → 1.06 +0.08 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 1.20 → -0.10 -1.30 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 48.50 → 47.80 -0.70 (2022-09-23 → 2022-12-16)
pmi_svc: 48.90 → 49.10 +0.20 (2022-09-23 → 2022-12-16)
policy_rate: 1.25 → 2.50 +1.25 (2022-09-08 → 2022-12-15)
unemployment: 6.60 → 6.50 -0.10 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-01)
yield_10y: 3.18 → 3.00 -0.18 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.70 → 1.50 +0.80 (2022-09-20 → 2022-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 3.80 +0.80 (2022-09-20 → 2022-12-23)
fx: 144.43 → 132.36 -12.07 (2022-09-30 → 2022-12-23)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-09-22 → 2022-12-20)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2022-09-30 → 2022-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.24 → 0.41 +0.17 (2022-10-01 → 2022-12-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W39 (7 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W45 (4 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose