Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2022-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2022-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-Q2 vs 2022-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W17: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W16: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W20: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
M9 ×2 yield_spike
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
M10 ×1 curve_inversion

China

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×13 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.60 +0.10 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-10)
core_pce: 5.35 → 5.32 -0.03 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 8.23 → 8.60 +0.37 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-10)
fx: 98.63 → 104.19 +5.56 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
gdp: 0.60 → -1.50 -2.10 (2022-04-01 → 2022-05-26)
pmi_mfg: 57.10 → 56.10 -1.00 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)
pmi_svc: 56.50 → 55.90 -0.60 (2022-03-03 → 2022-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 1.75 +1.25 (2022-04-03 → 2022-06-26)
slope_2s10s: -0.05 → 0.09 +0.14 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
unemployment: 3.70 → 3.60 -0.10 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-03)
yield_10y: 2.39 → 3.13 +0.74 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
yield_2y: 2.44 → 3.04 +0.60 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 2.10 +1.20 (2022-03-09 → 2022-06-10)
fx: 6.34 → 6.70 +0.36 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
gdp: 4.00 → 4.80 +0.80 (2022-01-17 → 2022-04-18)
pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 50.20 +2.80 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)
pmi_svc: 48.40 → 47.80 -0.60 (2022-03-31 → 2022-05-31)
policy_rate: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2022-03-21 → 2022-06-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.50 → 0.49 -0.02 (2022-04-02 → 2022-06-24)
unemployment: 6.10 → 5.50 -0.60 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.77 → 2.80 +0.03 (2022-04-02 → 2022-06-24)
yield_2y: 2.27 → 2.31 +0.04 (2022-04-02 → 2022-06-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 7.50 → 8.10 +0.60 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-17)
fx: 1.11 → 1.05 -0.06 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
gdp: 2.50 → 0.80 -1.70 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-17)
pmi_mfg: 56.50 → 52.00 -4.50 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-23)
pmi_svc: 54.80 → 52.80 -2.00 (2022-03-24 → 2022-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2022-03-10 → 2022-06-09)
unemployment: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2022-03-31 → 2022-06-01)
yield_10y: 1.57 → 2.44 +0.87 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.10 → 0.20 -1.90 (2022-03-24 → 2022-06-24)
cpi_yoy: 3.30 → 2.50 -0.80 (2022-03-24 → 2022-06-24)
fx: 121.76 → 134.84 +13.08 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-24)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-03-18 → 2022-06-17)
unemployment: 2.70 → 2.50 -0.20 (2022-03-29 → 2022-05-31)
yield_10y: 0.21 → 0.23 +0.01 (2022-04-01 → 2022-06-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W15 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W14 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose