Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2022-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glanceweekly archive →
Quarterly

2022-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-Q1 vs 2021-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W07: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
W12: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×2 yield_spike
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down
China
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×13 yield_spike
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.55 → 0.50 -0.05 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-10)
  • core_pce: 5.36 → 5.59 +0.23 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 7.56 → 7.90 +0.34 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-10)
  • fx: 95.67 → 98.81 +3.14 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • gdp: -1.00 → 7.00 +8.00 (2022-01-01 → 2022-02-24)
  • pmi_mfg: 61.10 → 58.60 -2.50 (2021-12-01 → 2022-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 69.10 → 56.50 -12.60 (2021-12-03 → 2022-03-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2022-01-02 → 2022-03-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.79 → 0.18 -0.61 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 3.80 -0.20 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-04)
  • yield_10y: 1.52 → 2.48 +0.96 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.73 → 2.30 +1.57 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 0.90 -1.40 (2021-12-09 → 2022-03-09)
  • fx: 6.37 → 6.37 -0.01 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 4.00 -0.90 (2021-10-18 → 2022-01-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 49.50 -0.60 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 52.70 → 51.60 -1.10 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-01)
  • policy_rate: 3.80 → 3.70 -0.10 (2021-12-20 → 2022-03-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.47 +0.07 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.80 +0.50 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.78 → 2.80 +0.02 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.37 → 2.32 -0.05 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 4.90 → 5.90 +1.00 (2021-12-17 → 2022-03-17)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.10 -0.03 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • gdp: 0.40 → 0.90 +0.50 (2021-12-17 → 2022-03-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.00 → 57.00 -1.00 (2021-12-16 → 2022-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 54.80 +1.50 (2021-12-16 → 2022-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-12-16 → 2022-03-10)
  • unemployment: 7.30 → 6.80 -0.50 (2021-12-02 → 2022-03-03)
  • yield_10y: 0.53 → 1.05 +0.52 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → 2.10 +3.30 (2021-12-24 → 2022-03-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 3.30 +2.70 (2021-12-24 → 2022-03-24)
  • fx: 115.06 → 122.35 +7.28 (2021-12-31 → 2022-03-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-12-17 → 2022-03-18)
  • unemployment: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2021-12-28 → 2022-03-04)
  • yield_10y: 0.17 → 0.21 +0.04 (2022-01-01 → 2022-03-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W12 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W08 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2022-01
monthly board
2022-02
monthly board
2022-03
monthly board