Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-05daily glanceweekly archive →2021-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×3 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.79 → 0.70 -0.09 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-10)
  • core_pce: 3.86 → 3.40 -0.46 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 5.30 → 5.00 -0.30 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-10)
  • fx: 90.14 → 91.81 +1.67 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • gdp: 6.40 → 6.40 0.00 (2021-05-27 → 2021-06-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-06-06 → 2021-06-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.42 → 1.26 -0.16 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_10y: 1.56 → 1.54 -0.02 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.14 → 0.28 +0.14 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.30 +0.40 (2021-05-11 → 2021-06-09)
  • fx: 6.40 → 6.47 +0.07 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-05-20 → 2021-06-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.42 +0.02 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.09 → 3.08 -0.01 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.69 → 2.67 -0.03 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-17)
  • fx: 1.21 → 1.19 -0.02 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 63.10 → 63.10 0.00 (2021-06-01 → 2021-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 55.20 → 58.00 +2.80 (2021-06-03 → 2021-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-04-22 → 2021-06-10)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → -1.10 +0.10 (2021-05-21 → 2021-06-18)
  • cpi_yoy: -1.10 → -0.80 +0.30 (2021-05-21 → 2021-06-18)
  • fx: 110.27 → 110.92 +0.66 (2021-06-04 → 2021-06-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-04-27 → 2021-06-18)

Busiest week: 2021-W22 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W25 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-06 vs 2021-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W22

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W23

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W24

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W25

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change