Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-06daily glanceweekly archive →2021-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W27: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.90 +0.54 (2021-07-01 → 2021-07-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 5.25 → 5.40 +0.15 (2021-07-01 → 2021-07-13)
  • fx: 92.23 → 92.91 +0.68 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • pmi_svc: 64.00 → 60.10 -3.90 (2021-06-03 → 2021-07-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-07-04 → 2021-07-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.20 → 1.08 -0.12 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • yield_10y: 1.44 → 1.30 -0.14 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.24 → 0.22 -0.02 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.10 -0.20 (2021-06-09 → 2021-07-09)
  • fx: 6.47 → 6.47 +0.00 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • gdp: 18.30 → 7.90 -10.40 (2021-04-16 → 2021-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-06-21 → 2021-07-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.44 +0.01 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.08 → 2.91 -0.17 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.65 → 2.47 -0.18 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 1.90 0.00 (2021-06-30 → 2021-07-16)
  • fx: 1.18 → 1.18 -0.01 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2021-06-30 → 2021-07-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 63.40 → 62.60 -0.80 (2021-07-01 → 2021-07-23)
  • pmi_svc: 58.00 → 60.40 +2.40 (2021-06-23 → 2021-07-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-06-10 → 2021-07-22)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -1.10 0.00 (2021-06-18 → 2021-07-20)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.80 → -0.50 +0.30 (2021-06-18 → 2021-07-20)
  • fx: 111.57 → 110.14 -1.43 (2021-07-02 → 2021-07-23)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-06-18 → 2021-07-16)

Busiest week: 2021-W26 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2021-W26 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-07 vs 2021-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W26

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W27

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W28

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change