Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-09daily glanceweekly archive →2020-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2020-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W42: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.14 → 0.20 +0.06 (2020-10-01 → 2020-10-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.23 → 1.40 +0.17 (2020-10-01 → 2020-10-13)
  • fx: 93.84 → 92.77 -1.07 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
  • pmi_svc: 56.90 → 57.80 +0.90 (2020-09-03 → 2020-10-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-10-04 → 2020-10-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.57 → 0.67 +0.10 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
  • yield_10y: 0.70 → 0.85 +0.15 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.18 +0.05 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 1.70 -0.70 (2020-09-09 → 2020-10-15)
  • fx: 6.79 → 6.68 -0.11 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
  • gdp: 3.20 → 4.90 +1.70 (2020-07-16 → 2020-10-19)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-09-21 → 2020-10-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.36 → 0.32 -0.03 (2020-09-30 → 2020-10-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.15 → 3.20 +0.05 (2020-09-30 → 2020-10-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.79 → 2.87 +0.08 (2020-09-30 → 2020-10-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-16)
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.18 +0.01 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.70 → 54.40 +0.70 (2020-10-01 → 2020-10-23)
  • pmi_svc: 47.60 → 46.20 -1.40 (2020-09-23 → 2020-10-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.30 +0.10 (2020-09-18 → 2020-10-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.00 -0.20 (2020-09-18 → 2020-10-23)
  • fx: 105.54 → 104.92 -0.62 (2020-10-02 → 2020-10-23)

Busiest week: 2020-W40 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W42 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-10 vs 2020-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2020-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2020-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2020-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change