Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-10daily glanceweekly archive →2020-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2020-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W46: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.25 → 0.00 -0.25 (2020-11-01 → 2020-11-12)
  • core_pce: 1.45 → 1.40 -0.05 (2020-11-01 → 2020-11-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.18 → 1.20 +0.02 (2020-11-01 → 2020-11-12)
  • fx: 94.04 → 91.79 -2.25 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • gdp: 33.10 → 33.10 0.00 (2020-10-29 → 2020-11-25)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.40 → 59.30 +3.90 (2020-10-01 → 2020-11-02)
  • pmi_svc: 57.80 → 56.60 -1.20 (2020-10-05 → 2020-11-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-11-01 → 2020-11-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.74 → 0.68 -0.06 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • unemployment: 6.70 → 6.90 +0.20 (2020-11-01 → 2020-11-06)
  • yield_10y: 0.88 → 0.84 -0.04 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.14 → 0.16 +0.02 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 0.50 -1.20 (2020-10-15 → 2020-11-10)
  • fx: 6.71 → 6.57 -0.14 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-10-20 → 2020-11-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.24 -0.07 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.18 → 3.30 +0.12 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.87 → 3.06 +0.19 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-18)
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.19 +0.02 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.40 → 53.60 -0.80 (2020-10-23 → 2020-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 46.20 → 41.30 -4.90 (2020-10-23 → 2020-11-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.30 → -0.40 -0.10 (2020-10-23 → 2020-11-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.00 → -0.40 -0.40 (2020-10-23 → 2020-11-20)
  • fx: 104.55 → 104.24 -0.31 (2020-10-30 → 2020-11-27)

Busiest week: 2020-W46 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W44 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-11 vs 2020-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W44

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W45

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W46

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W47

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W48

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change