Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-05daily glanceweekly archive →2019-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2019-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2019-06-01 → 2019-06-12)
  • core_pce: 1.66 → 1.60 -0.06 (2019-06-01 → 2019-06-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.67 → 1.80 +0.13 (2019-06-01 → 2019-06-12)
  • fx: 97.75 → 96.13 -1.62 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • gdp: 3.10 → 3.10 0.00 (2019-05-30 → 2019-06-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.80 → 52.10 -0.70 (2019-05-01 → 2019-06-03)
  • pmi_svc: 55.50 → 56.90 +1.40 (2019-05-03 → 2019-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-06-02 → 2019-06-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.19 → 0.25 +0.06 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 3.60 0.00 (2019-06-01 → 2019-06-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.14 → 2.00 -0.14 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 1.95 → 1.75 -0.20 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.70 +0.20 (2019-05-09 → 2019-06-12)
  • fx: 6.90 → 6.87 -0.03 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • pmi_svc: 54.30 → 54.20 -0.10 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.46 → 0.38 -0.08 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.28 → 3.23 -0.05 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.82 → 2.85 +0.03 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.20 -0.50 (2019-05-17 → 2019-06-28)
  • fx: 1.11 → 1.14 +0.02 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • gdp: 0.70 → 0.10 -0.60 (2019-05-17 → 2019-06-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.70 → 47.80 +0.10 (2019-05-23 → 2019-06-21)
  • pmi_svc: 52.50 → 53.40 +0.90 (2019-05-23 → 2019-06-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-04-10 → 2019-06-06)
  • unemployment: 7.70 → 7.60 -0.10 (2019-04-30 → 2019-06-04)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.30 -0.20 (2019-05-24 → 2019-06-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.70 -0.20 (2019-05-24 → 2019-06-21)
  • fx: 109.36 → 107.75 -1.61 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-04-25 → 2019-06-20)
  • unemployment: 2.40 → 2.40 0.00 (2019-05-31 → 2019-06-28)

Busiest week: 2019-W22 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2019-W22 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-06 vs 2019-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W22

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W23

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W24

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W25

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W26

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active