Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-03daily glanceweekly archive →2019-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W16: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.10 -0.06 (2019-04-01 → 2019-04-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2019-04-01 → 2019-04-10)
  • fx: 97.40 → 98.01 +0.61 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • gdp: 3.40 → 3.20 -0.20 (2019-04-01 → 2019-04-26)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-04-07 → 2019-04-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.15 → 0.23 +0.08 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.50 → 2.51 +0.01 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.35 → 2.28 -0.07 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.30 +0.80 (2019-03-09 → 2019-04-11)
  • fx: 6.72 → 6.74 +0.03 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • gdp: 6.40 → 6.40 0.00 (2019-01-21 → 2019-04-17)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-04-04 → 2019-04-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.65 → 0.51 -0.14 (2019-04-04 → 2019-04-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.40 +0.14 (2019-04-04 → 2019-04-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.61 → 2.89 +0.28 (2019-04-04 → 2019-04-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2019-04-01 → 2019-04-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.11 -0.01 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 1.00 +0.70 (2019-03-15 → 2019-04-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.50 → 47.80 +0.30 (2019-04-01 → 2019-04-18)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 52.50 -0.80 (2019-04-03 → 2019-04-18)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-03-07 → 2019-04-10)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2019-03-22 → 2019-04-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.50 +0.30 (2019-03-22 → 2019-04-19)
  • fx: 111.66 → 111.54 -0.12 (2019-04-05 → 2019-04-26)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-03-15 → 2019-04-25)
  • unemployment: 2.30 → 2.50 +0.20 (2019-03-29 → 2019-04-26)

Busiest week: 2019-W14 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2019-W14 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-04 vs 2019-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W14

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W15

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W16

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W17

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change