Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-04daily glanceweekly archive →2019-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.08 → 0.10 +0.02 (2019-05-01 → 2019-05-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 2.00 +0.20 (2019-05-01 → 2019-05-10)
  • fx: 97.52 → 97.61 +0.09 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-05-05 → 2019-05-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.21 → 0.16 -0.05 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.54 → 2.32 -0.22 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.33 → 2.16 -0.17 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.50 +0.20 (2019-04-11 → 2019-05-09)
  • fx: 6.73 → 6.91 +0.18 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-04-30 → 2019-05-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.46 -0.04 (2019-05-05 → 2019-05-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.38 → 3.31 -0.07 (2019-05-05 → 2019-05-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.89 → 2.86 -0.04 (2019-05-05 → 2019-05-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.12 +0.00 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)
  • gdp: 1.00 → 0.70 -0.30 (2019-04-17 → 2019-05-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.90 → 47.70 -0.20 (2019-05-02 → 2019-05-23)
  • pmi_svc: 52.50 → 52.50 0.00 (2019-04-18 → 2019-05-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2019-04-19 → 2019-05-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.90 +0.40 (2019-04-19 → 2019-05-24)
  • fx: 111.50 → 109.56 -1.94 (2019-05-03 → 2019-05-24)

Busiest week: 2019-W21 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W18 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-05 vs 2019-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W18

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W19

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W20

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W21

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active