Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-10daily glanceweekly archive →2018-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
W47: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
Japan
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W47: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

No mechanisms fired in any bloc during this period — a quiet stretch.

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2018-11-01 → 2018-11-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.15 → 2.50 +0.35 (2018-11-01 → 2018-11-14)
  • fx: 96.54 → 96.92 +0.38 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 61.60 → 60.30 -1.30 (2018-10-03 → 2018-11-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.25 → 2.25 0.00 (2018-11-04 → 2018-11-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.24 -0.07 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.22 → 3.05 -0.17 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.91 → 2.81 -0.10 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2018-10-16 → 2018-11-09)
  • fx: 6.92 → 6.93 +0.01 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.60 → 0.68 +0.08 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.55 → 3.39 -0.15 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.94 → 2.71 -0.23 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2018-10-31 → 2018-11-16)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.14 -0.00 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • gdp: 0.50 → 0.20 -0.30 (2018-10-17 → 2018-11-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 51.50 -0.50 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 53.10 -0.20 (2018-10-24 → 2018-11-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2018-10-19 → 2018-11-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.40 +0.20 (2018-10-19 → 2018-11-22)
  • fx: 112.71 → 112.98 +0.26 (2018-11-02 → 2018-11-23)

Busiest week: 2018-W44 (0 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W44 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-11 vs 2018-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W44

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W45

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W46

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W47

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change