Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-09daily glanceweekly archive →2018-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W42: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.10 -0.11 (2018-10-01 → 2018-10-11)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.49 → 2.30 -0.19 (2018-10-01 → 2018-10-11)
  • fx: 95.62 → 96.36 +0.74 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
  • gdp: 0.60 → 3.50 +2.90 (2018-10-01 → 2018-10-26)
  • policy_rate: 2.25 → 2.25 0.00 (2018-10-07 → 2018-10-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.27 -0.08 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.23 → 3.08 -0.15 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.88 → 2.81 -0.07 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.50 +0.20 (2018-09-10 → 2018-10-16)
  • fx: 6.87 → 6.95 +0.08 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
  • gdp: 6.70 → 6.50 -0.20 (2018-07-16 → 2018-10-19)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-09-30 → 2018-10-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.57 +0.10 (2018-09-30 → 2018-10-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.61 → 3.54 -0.07 (2018-09-30 → 2018-10-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.14 → 2.97 -0.17 (2018-09-30 → 2018-10-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.10 0.00 (2018-09-28 → 2018-10-17)
  • fx: 1.15 → 1.14 -0.01 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.50 +0.30 (2018-09-17 → 2018-10-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 52.10 -1.10 (2018-10-01 → 2018-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 54.70 → 53.30 -1.40 (2018-10-03 → 2018-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-09-13 → 2018-10-25)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2018-09-21 → 2018-10-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.20 -0.10 (2018-09-21 → 2018-10-19)
  • fx: 113.89 → 112.35 -1.54 (2018-10-05 → 2018-10-26)

Busiest week: 2018-W40 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W42 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-10 vs 2018-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W40

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W41

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change