Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-11daily glanceweekly archive →2019-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2018-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W51: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.24 → 0.20 -0.04 (2018-12-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • core_pce: 2.04 → 1.90 -0.14 (2018-12-01 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.20 +0.20 (2018-12-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • fx: 97.27 → 96.39 -0.88 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 3.50 → 3.40 -0.10 (2018-11-28 → 2018-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 58.80 +1.30 (2018-11-01 → 2018-12-03)
  • pmi_svc: 60.30 → 60.70 +0.40 (2018-11-05 → 2018-12-06)
  • policy_rate: 2.25 → 2.50 +0.25 (2018-12-02 → 2018-12-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • unemployment: 3.90 → 3.70 -0.20 (2018-12-01 → 2018-12-07)
  • yield_10y: 3.01 → 2.72 -0.29 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.80 → 2.52 -0.28 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.20 -0.30 (2018-11-09 → 2018-12-09)
  • fx: 6.94 → 6.87 -0.08 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.66 → 0.52 -0.14 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.35 → 3.23 -0.13 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-30)
  • yield_2y: 2.70 → 2.71 +0.01 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-30)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-17)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.14 +0.00 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.20 -0.40 (2018-11-16 → 2018-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.50 → 51.40 -0.10 (2018-11-23 → 2018-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 53.10 → 51.40 -1.70 (2018-11-23 → 2018-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-10-25 → 2018-12-13)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2018-11-22 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 0.80 -0.60 (2018-11-22 → 2018-12-21)
  • fx: 113.41 → 110.86 -2.56 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-10-31 → 2018-12-20)
  • unemployment: 2.40 → 2.50 +0.10 (2018-11-30 → 2018-12-28)

Busiest week: 2018-W49 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W48 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-12 vs 2018-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W48

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W49

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W50

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W51

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W52

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change