Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-07daily glanceweekly archive →2018-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W32: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.07 → 0.20 +0.13 (2018-08-01 → 2018-08-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.64 → 2.90 +0.26 (2018-08-01 → 2018-08-10)
  • fx: 95.14 → 95.15 +0.01 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2018-08-05 → 2018-08-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.19 -0.13 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.95 → 2.82 -0.13 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.63 → 2.63 0.00 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 2.10 +0.20 (2018-07-10 → 2018-08-09)
  • fx: 6.83 → 6.88 +0.04 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.57 -0.04 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.46 → 3.63 +0.17 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.85 → 3.05 +0.21 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.10 0.00 (2018-07-31 → 2018-08-17)
  • fx: 1.16 → 1.15 -0.00 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2018-07-18 → 2018-08-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.10 → 54.60 -0.50 (2018-08-01 → 2018-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 54.20 → 54.40 +0.20 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-07-20 → 2018-08-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.90 +0.20 (2018-07-20 → 2018-08-24)
  • fx: 111.69 → 111.37 -0.32 (2018-08-03 → 2018-08-24)

Busiest week: 2018-W31 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2018-W31 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-08 vs 2018-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W34

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change