Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-06daily glanceweekly archive →2018-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2018-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.20 +0.08 (2018-07-01 → 2018-07-12)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.85 → 2.90 +0.05 (2018-07-01 → 2018-07-12)
  • fx: 94.63 → 94.68 +0.05 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • gdp: 2.50 → 4.10 +1.60 (2018-07-01 → 2018-07-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.70 → 60.00 +1.30 (2018-06-01 → 2018-07-02)
  • pmi_svc: 58.60 → 59.10 +0.50 (2018-06-05 → 2018-07-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2018-07-01 → 2018-07-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.29 -0.04 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • unemployment: 3.80 → 4.00 +0.20 (2018-07-01 → 2018-07-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.85 → 2.96 +0.11 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.52 → 2.67 +0.15 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 1.90 +0.10 (2018-06-09 → 2018-07-10)
  • fx: 6.63 → 6.78 +0.16 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.70 -0.10 (2018-04-17 → 2018-07-16)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.22 → 0.53 +0.32 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.52 +0.05 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.26 → 2.99 -0.27 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-18)
  • fx: 1.16 → 1.16 +0.01 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)
  • gdp: 0.50 → 0.10 -0.40 (2018-06-15 → 2018-07-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.00 → 55.10 +0.10 (2018-06-22 → 2018-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.40 -0.60 (2018-06-22 → 2018-07-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-06-14 → 2018-07-26)
  • unemployment: 8.50 → 8.40 -0.10 (2018-05-31 → 2018-07-02)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.00 -0.10 (2018-06-22 → 2018-07-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.70 0.00 (2018-06-22 → 2018-07-20)
  • fx: 110.49 → 111.15 +0.66 (2018-06-29 → 2018-07-27)

Busiest week: 2018-W26 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2018-W26 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-07 vs 2018-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W26

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W27

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W28

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change