Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-09

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-08daily glanceweekly archive →2018-10 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2018-09 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W37: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W38: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.18 → 0.10 -0.08 (2018-09-01 → 2018-09-13)
  • core_pce: 1.96 → 2.00 +0.04 (2018-09-01 → 2018-09-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.33 → 2.70 +0.37 (2018-09-01 → 2018-09-13)
  • fx: 95.14 → 95.19 +0.05 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • gdp: 4.20 → 4.20 0.00 (2018-08-29 → 2018-09-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.40 → 60.80 +2.40 (2018-08-01 → 2018-09-04)
  • pmi_svc: 55.70 → 58.50 +2.80 (2018-08-03 → 2018-09-06)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.25 +0.25 (2018-09-02 → 2018-09-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.24 → 0.24 0.00 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • unemployment: 3.70 → 3.90 +0.20 (2018-09-01 → 2018-09-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.86 → 3.05 +0.19 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.62 → 2.81 +0.19 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.30 +0.20 (2018-08-09 → 2018-09-10)
  • fx: 6.84 → 6.88 +0.04 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • pmi_svc: 54.20 → 54.90 +0.70 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.50 → 0.47 -0.03 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.58 → 3.61 +0.04 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-30)
  • yield_2y: 3.07 → 3.14 +0.07 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-30)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.16 -0.00 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.20 +0.50 (2018-08-17 → 2018-09-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.60 → 53.30 -1.30 (2018-08-23 → 2018-09-21)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 54.70 +0.30 (2018-08-23 → 2018-09-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-07-26 → 2018-09-13)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.00 → 0.20 +0.20 (2018-08-24 → 2018-09-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.30 +0.40 (2018-08-24 → 2018-09-21)
  • fx: 111.00 → 113.36 +2.36 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-07-31 → 2018-09-19)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.40 -0.10 (2018-08-31 → 2018-09-28)

Busiest week: 2018-W38 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W35 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-09 vs 2018-08, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-09).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W35

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W36

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W37

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W38

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W39

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active