Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-05daily glanceweekly archive →2018-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-12)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.81 → 2.80 -0.01 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-12)
  • fx: 94.19 → 94.52 +0.33 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • pmi_svc: 56.80 → 58.60 +1.80 (2018-05-03 → 2018-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 2.00 +0.25 (2018-06-03 → 2018-06-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.34 -0.08 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • yield_10y: 2.89 → 2.90 +0.01 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • yield_2y: 2.47 → 2.56 +0.09 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 1.80 0.00 (2018-05-10 → 2018-06-09)
  • fx: 6.41 → 6.49 +0.08 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.20 -0.11 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • yield_10y: 3.62 → 3.56 -0.06 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • yield_2y: 3.31 → 3.36 +0.06 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 1.90 0.00 (2018-05-31 → 2018-06-15)
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.16 -0.01 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2018-05-16 → 2018-06-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 55.00 -0.50 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 55.00 +1.10 (2018-05-23 → 2018-06-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-04-26 → 2018-06-14)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2018-05-18 → 2018-06-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.70 +0.10 (2018-05-18 → 2018-06-22)
  • fx: 108.75 → 109.95 +1.20 (2018-06-01 → 2018-06-22)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-04-27 → 2018-06-15)

Busiest week: 2018-W22 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W25 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-06 vs 2018-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W22

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2018-W23

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2018-W24

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2018-W25

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change