Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-04daily glanceweekly archive →2018-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target
W19: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2018-05-01 → 2018-05-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.78 → 2.50 -0.28 (2018-05-01 → 2018-05-10)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 1.75 0.00 (2018-05-06 → 2018-05-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.44 → 0.45 +0.01 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
  • yield_10y: 2.95 → 2.93 -0.02 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.51 → 2.48 -0.03 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 1.80 -0.30 (2018-04-11 → 2018-05-10)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.38 -0.15 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.63 → 3.61 -0.02 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.11 → 3.24 +0.13 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.20 0.00 (2018-05-03 → 2018-05-16)
  • gdp: 1.00 → 0.30 -0.70 (2018-04-18 → 2018-05-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 55.50 -0.70 (2018-05-02 → 2018-05-23)
  • pmi_svc: 54.70 → 53.90 -0.80 (2018-05-04 → 2018-05-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2018-04-30 → 2018-05-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 0.60 -0.50 (2018-04-30 → 2018-05-18)

Busiest week: 2018-W20 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W18 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-05 vs 2018-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W18

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W19

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W20

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2018-W21

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active