Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-03daily glanceweekly archive →2018-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2018-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W15: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W14: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.14 → 0.20 +0.06 (2018-04-01 → 2018-04-11)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.47 → 2.40 -0.07 (2018-04-01 → 2018-04-11)
  • gdp: 2.10 → 2.30 +0.20 (2018-04-01 → 2018-04-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 60.70 → 59.30 -1.40 (2018-03-01 → 2018-04-02)
  • pmi_svc: 59.50 → 58.80 -0.70 (2018-03-05 → 2018-04-04)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 1.75 0.00 (2018-04-01 → 2018-04-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.47 0.00 (2018-03-29 → 2018-04-27)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 4.10 +0.10 (2018-04-01 → 2018-04-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.74 → 2.96 +0.22 (2018-03-29 → 2018-04-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.27 → 2.49 +0.22 (2018-03-29 → 2018-04-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.10 -0.80 (2018-03-09 → 2018-04-11)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2018-01-18 → 2018-04-17)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.31 +0.01 (2018-03-30 → 2018-04-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.53 +0.21 (2018-03-30 → 2018-04-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.74 → 3.62 -0.12 (2018-03-30 → 2018-04-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.42 → 3.09 -0.33 (2018-03-30 → 2018-04-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 1.30 +0.20 (2018-03-16 → 2018-04-18)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 1.00 +0.80 (2018-03-16 → 2018-04-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 56.00 -0.60 (2018-03-22 → 2018-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 55.00 0.00 (2018-03-22 → 2018-04-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-03-08 → 2018-04-26)
  • unemployment: 8.60 → 8.50 -0.10 (2018-03-01 → 2018-04-04)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-03-09 → 2018-04-27)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2018-03-30 → 2018-04-27)

Busiest week: 2018-W13 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W14 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-04 vs 2018-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W14

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W15

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W16

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2018-W17

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active