Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-03daily glanceweekly archive →2017-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2017-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×3 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.11 → -0.10 -0.21 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.18 → 2.40 +0.22 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-14)
  • gdp: 2.30 → 0.70 -1.60 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-28)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.70 → 57.20 -0.50 (2017-03-01 → 2017-04-03)
  • pmi_svc: 57.60 → 55.20 -2.40 (2017-03-03 → 2017-04-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2017-04-02 → 2017-04-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.13 → 1.01 -0.12 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
  • unemployment: 4.40 → 4.50 +0.10 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.29 -0.11 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
  • yield_2y: 1.27 → 1.28 +0.01 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.90 +0.10 (2017-03-09 → 2017-04-12)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.90 +0.10 (2017-01-20 → 2017-04-17)
  • pmi_svc: 55.10 → 54.00 -1.10 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.25 -0.07 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.47 +0.19 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.95 → 3.21 +0.26 (2017-04-01 → 2017-04-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.90 +0.40 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
  • gdp: 0.40 → 0.80 +0.40 (2017-03-16 → 2017-04-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 56.80 +0.60 (2017-03-24 → 2017-04-21)
  • pmi_svc: 56.50 → 56.20 -0.30 (2017-03-24 → 2017-04-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-03-09 → 2017-04-27)
  • unemployment: 9.60 → 9.50 -0.10 (2017-03-02 → 2017-04-03)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.10 → -0.30 -0.20 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-03-16 → 2017-04-27)
  • unemployment: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2017-03-31 → 2017-04-28)

Busiest week: 2017-W13 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W14 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-04 vs 2017-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W14

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W15

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W17

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active