Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-04daily glanceweekly archive →2017-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2017-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M10 ×1 curve_inversion
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.08 → 0.10 +0.02 (2017-05-01 → 2017-05-12)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.86 → 2.20 +0.34 (2017-05-01 → 2017-05-12)
  • gdp: 0.70 → 1.20 +0.50 (2017-04-28 → 2017-05-26)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2017-05-07 → 2017-05-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.04 → 0.95 -0.09 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.36 → 2.25 -0.11 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-26)
  • yield_2y: 1.32 → 1.30 -0.02 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.20 +0.30 (2017-04-12 → 2017-05-10)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.13 → 0.05 -0.08 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.56 → 3.65 +0.09 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.42 → 3.60 +0.17 (2017-05-05 → 2017-05-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 1.90 0.00 (2017-04-28 → 2017-05-17)
  • gdp: 0.80 → 0.40 -0.40 (2017-04-19 → 2017-05-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.70 → 57.00 +0.30 (2017-05-02 → 2017-05-23)
  • pmi_svc: 56.40 → 56.20 -0.20 (2017-05-04 → 2017-05-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2017-04-28 → 2017-05-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.40 +0.20 (2017-04-28 → 2017-05-26)

Busiest week: 2017-W20 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W21 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-05 vs 2017-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W18

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W19

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W20

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2017-W21

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change