Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-05daily glanceweekly archive →2017-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2017-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M10 ×1 curve_inversion
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.13 → 0.10 -0.03 (2017-06-01 → 2017-06-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.64 → 1.90 +0.26 (2017-06-01 → 2017-06-14)
  • pmi_svc: 57.50 → 56.90 -0.60 (2017-05-03 → 2017-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.25 +0.25 (2017-06-04 → 2017-06-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.87 → 0.81 -0.06 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.15 → 2.15 0.00 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
  • yield_2y: 1.28 → 1.34 +0.06 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.50 +0.30 (2017-05-10 → 2017-06-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.05 → 0.01 -0.04 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.63 → 3.55 -0.08 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.58 → 3.53 -0.05 (2017-06-02 → 2017-06-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2017-05-31 → 2017-06-16)
  • gdp: 0.40 → -0.10 -0.50 (2017-05-17 → 2017-06-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.00 → 57.30 +0.30 (2017-06-01 → 2017-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 56.20 → 54.70 -1.50 (2017-05-23 → 2017-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-04-27 → 2017-06-08)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-04-27 → 2017-06-16)

Busiest week: 2017-W24 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W22 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-06 vs 2017-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W22

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W23

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W24

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 2 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W25

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change