Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-02daily glanceweekly archive →2015-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2015-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W11: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.24 → 0.20 -0.04 (2015-03-01 → 2015-03-24)
  • core_pce: 1.28 → 1.30 +0.02 (2015-03-01 → 2015-03-02)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.02 → 0.00 +0.02 (2015-03-01 → 2015-03-17)
  • gdp: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2015-02-27 → 2015-03-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.50 → 52.90 -0.60 (2015-02-02 → 2015-03-02)
  • pmi_svc: 56.70 → 56.90 +0.20 (2015-02-04 → 2015-03-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-03-01 → 2015-03-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.37 → 1.37 0.00 (2015-02-27 → 2015-03-27)
  • unemployment: 5.40 → 5.50 +0.10 (2015-03-01 → 2015-03-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.00 → 1.95 -0.05 (2015-02-27 → 2015-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.63 → 0.58 -0.05 (2015-02-27 → 2015-03-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 1.40 +0.60 (2015-02-10 → 2015-03-10)
  • policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.30 -0.21 (2015-02-28 → 2015-03-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.27 → 0.35 +0.08 (2015-02-28 → 2015-03-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.36 → 3.57 +0.21 (2015-02-28 → 2015-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.09 → 3.21 +0.13 (2015-02-28 → 2015-03-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.60 → -0.30 +0.30 (2015-02-24 → 2015-03-17)
  • gdp: -1.60 → 0.60 +2.20 (2015-02-24 → 2015-03-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 51.90 +0.80 (2015-02-20 → 2015-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 54.30 +0.40 (2015-02-20 → 2015-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-01-22 → 2015-03-05)
  • unemployment: 11.40 → 11.20 -0.20 (2015-01-30 → 2015-03-02)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.10 → 2.00 -0.10 (2015-02-25 → 2015-03-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.20 -0.20 (2015-02-25 → 2015-03-28)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-02-18 → 2015-03-17)

Busiest week: 2015-W10 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2015-W09 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-03 vs 2015-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W09

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W10

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W11

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W12

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W13

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change