Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-12daily glanceweekly archive →2015-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.00 -0.09 (2015-01-01 → 2015-01-16)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.23 → 0.80 +1.03 (2015-01-01 → 2015-01-14)
  • pmi_svc: 59.30 → 56.20 -3.10 (2014-12-03 → 2015-01-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-01-04 → 2015-01-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.46 → 1.29 -0.17 (2015-01-02 → 2015-01-23)
  • unemployment: 5.70 → 5.60 -0.10 (2015-01-01 → 2015-01-09)
  • yield_10y: 2.12 → 1.81 -0.31 (2015-01-02 → 2015-01-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.66 → 0.52 -0.14 (2015-01-02 → 2015-01-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.50 +0.10 (2014-12-10 → 2015-01-09)
  • gdp: 7.30 → 7.30 0.00 (2014-10-21 → 2015-01-20)
  • policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.51 0.00 (2015-01-04 → 2015-01-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.28 -0.04 (2015-01-04 → 2015-01-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.63 → 3.45 -0.18 (2015-01-04 → 2015-01-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.31 → 3.17 -0.14 (2015-01-04 → 2015-01-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → -0.20 -0.50 (2014-12-17 → 2015-01-16)
  • gdp: -0.20 → -0.10 +0.10 (2014-12-17 → 2015-01-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 51.00 +0.40 (2015-01-02 → 2015-01-23)
  • pmi_svc: 51.90 → 52.30 +0.40 (2014-12-16 → 2015-01-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2014-12-04 → 2015-01-22)
  • unemployment: 11.50 → 11.50 0.00 (2014-11-28 → 2015-01-07)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.10 → 2.10 0.00 (2014-12-26 → 2015-01-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.40 0.00 (2014-12-26 → 2015-01-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-12-19 → 2015-01-21)

Busiest week: 2015-W04 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W01 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-01 vs 2014-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W01

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W02

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W03

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W04

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change