Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-01daily glanceweekly archive →2015-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W07: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_pce: 1.28 → 1.30 +0.02 (2015-02-01 → 2015-02-02)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.09 → -0.10 -0.01 (2015-02-01 → 2015-02-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 53.50 -2.00 (2015-01-02 → 2015-02-02)
  • pmi_svc: 56.20 → 56.70 +0.50 (2015-01-06 → 2015-02-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-02-01 → 2015-02-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 1.46 +0.25 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-20)
  • unemployment: 5.50 → 5.70 +0.20 (2015-02-01 → 2015-02-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.68 → 2.13 +0.45 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-20)
  • yield_2y: 0.47 → 0.67 +0.20 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-20)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 0.80 -0.70 (2015-01-09 → 2015-02-10)
  • policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.51 0.00 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-17)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.26 -0.08 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-17)
  • yield_10y: 3.50 → 3.34 -0.16 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-17)
  • yield_2y: 3.16 → 3.07 -0.08 (2015-01-30 → 2015-02-17)
Euro area
  • pmi_mfg: 51.00 → 51.10 +0.10 (2015-01-23 → 2015-02-20)
  • pmi_svc: 52.30 → 53.90 +1.60 (2015-01-23 → 2015-02-20)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-01-21 → 2015-02-18)

Busiest week: 2015-W05 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2015-W07 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-02 vs 2015-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W05

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W06

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W07

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W08

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change