Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2014-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2014-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-Q1 vs 2013-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W05: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W06: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W07: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W10: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W12: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W02: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-18)
  • core_pce: 1.45 → 1.45 0.00 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.56 → 1.10 -0.46 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-17)
  • gdp: -1.40 → 2.60 +4.00 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.00 → 53.20 -3.80 (2014-01-02 → 2014-03-03)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 51.60 -2.30 (2013-12-04 → 2014-03-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-01-05 → 2014-03-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.60 → 2.28 -0.32 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
  • unemployment: 6.60 → 6.70 +0.10 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-07)
  • yield_10y: 3.01 → 2.73 -0.28 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.41 → 0.45 +0.04 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.00 -1.00 (2013-12-09 → 2014-03-09)
  • gdp: 7.80 → 7.70 -0.10 (2013-10-18 → 2014-01-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 50.30 -0.20 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 54.60 → 55.00 +0.40 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-03)
  • policy_rate: 5.73 → 5.76 +0.03 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.26 → 1.10 +0.84 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_10y: 4.64 → 4.51 -0.13 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_2y: 4.38 → 3.41 -0.97 (2014-01-03 → 2014-03-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.70 -0.20 (2013-12-17 → 2014-03-17)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.30 +0.40 (2013-12-17 → 2014-03-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 53.00 +0.30 (2014-01-02 → 2014-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 51.00 → 52.40 +1.40 (2013-12-16 → 2014-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-12-05 → 2014-03-06)
  • unemployment: 12.10 → 12.00 -0.10 (2013-11-29 → 2014-02-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.21 → 2.89 -0.33 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.60 → 0.80 +0.20 (2013-12-26 → 2014-03-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2013-12-26 → 2014-03-28)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-12-20 → 2014-03-11)
  • unemployment: 3.90 → 3.70 -0.20 (2013-12-30 → 2014-03-01)
  • yield_10y: 0.61 → 0.60 -0.01 (2014-01-01 → 2014-03-01)

Busiest week: 2014-W01 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W06 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2014-01
monthly board
2014-02
monthly board
2014-03
monthly board