Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-12daily glanceweekly archive →2014-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2014-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W02: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2014-01-01 → 2014-01-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.56 → 1.50 -0.06 (2014-01-01 → 2014-01-14)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 53.00 -0.90 (2013-12-04 → 2014-01-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-01-05 → 2014-01-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.60 → 2.38 -0.22 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-24)
  • unemployment: 6.60 → 6.70 +0.10 (2014-01-01 → 2014-01-10)
  • yield_10y: 3.01 → 2.75 -0.26 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.41 → 0.37 -0.04 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.50 -0.50 (2013-12-09 → 2014-01-09)
  • gdp: 7.80 → 7.70 -0.10 (2013-10-18 → 2014-01-20)
  • policy_rate: 5.73 → 5.73 0.00 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.26 → 0.69 +0.43 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-26)
  • yield_10y: 4.64 → 4.48 -0.16 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-26)
  • yield_2y: 4.38 → 3.79 -0.59 (2014-01-03 → 2014-01-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.80 -0.10 (2013-12-17 → 2014-01-16)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.30 +0.40 (2013-12-17 → 2014-01-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 53.90 +1.20 (2014-01-02 → 2014-01-23)
  • pmi_svc: 51.00 → 51.90 +0.90 (2013-12-16 → 2014-01-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-12-05 → 2014-01-09)
  • unemployment: 12.10 → 12.10 0.00 (2013-11-29 → 2014-01-08)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.60 → 0.70 +0.10 (2013-12-26 → 2014-01-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.60 +0.10 (2013-12-26 → 2014-01-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-12-20 → 2014-01-22)

Busiest week: 2014-W01 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W01 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-01 vs 2013-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W01

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2014-W02

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2014-W03

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2014-W04

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change