Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-01daily glanceweekly archive →2014-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2014-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation → stall-speed, at target
W06: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W07: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2014-02-01 → 2014-02-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.12 → 1.60 +0.48 (2014-02-01 → 2014-02-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.00 → 51.30 -5.70 (2014-01-02 → 2014-02-03)
  • pmi_svc: 53.00 → 54.00 +1.00 (2014-01-06 → 2014-02-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-02-02 → 2014-02-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.40 +0.07 (2014-01-31 → 2014-02-21)
  • unemployment: 6.70 → 6.60 -0.10 (2014-02-01 → 2014-02-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.67 → 2.73 +0.06 (2014-01-31 → 2014-02-21)
  • yield_2y: 0.34 → 0.33 -0.01 (2014-01-31 → 2014-02-21)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2014-01-09 → 2014-02-14)
  • pmi_svc: 54.60 → 53.40 -1.20 (2014-01-03 → 2014-02-03)
  • policy_rate: 5.73 → 5.76 +0.03 (2014-01-30 → 2014-02-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.68 → 0.90 +0.21 (2014-01-30 → 2014-02-21)
  • yield_10y: 4.50 → 4.52 +0.02 (2014-01-30 → 2014-02-21)
  • yield_2y: 3.82 → 3.63 -0.19 (2014-01-30 → 2014-02-21)
Euro area
  • pmi_mfg: 53.90 → 53.00 -0.90 (2014-01-23 → 2014-02-20)
  • pmi_svc: 51.90 → 51.70 -0.20 (2014-01-23 → 2014-02-20)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-01-09 → 2014-02-06)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-01-22 → 2014-02-18)

Busiest week: 2014-W05 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W06 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-02 vs 2014-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W05

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W06

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W07

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W08

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change