Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-02daily glanceweekly archive →2014-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2014-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W10: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W12: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.10 -0.09 (2014-03-01 → 2014-03-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.61 → 1.10 -0.51 (2014-03-01 → 2014-03-17)
  • gdp: 2.40 → 2.60 +0.20 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 53.20 +1.90 (2014-02-03 → 2014-03-03)
  • pmi_svc: 54.00 → 51.60 -2.40 (2014-02-05 → 2014-03-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-03-02 → 2014-03-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.28 -0.05 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
  • unemployment: 6.70 → 6.70 0.00 (2014-03-01 → 2014-03-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.66 → 2.73 +0.07 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.45 +0.12 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2014-02-14 → 2014-03-09)
  • pmi_svc: 53.40 → 55.00 +1.60 (2014-02-03 → 2014-03-03)
  • policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.76 0.00 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.89 → 1.10 +0.21 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_10y: 4.43 → 4.51 +0.08 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.54 → 3.41 -0.13 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.70 -0.10 (2014-02-28 → 2014-03-17)
  • gdp: -1.10 → 0.30 +1.40 (2014-02-24 → 2014-03-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.00 → 53.00 0.00 (2014-02-20 → 2014-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 51.70 → 52.40 +0.70 (2014-02-20 → 2014-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-02-06 → 2014-03-06)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.70 → 0.80 +0.10 (2014-02-25 → 2014-03-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.50 +0.10 (2014-02-25 → 2014-03-28)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-02-18 → 2014-03-11)

Busiest week: 2014-W10 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W09 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-03 vs 2014-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W09

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W10

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W11

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W12

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W13

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change