Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2011-12daily glanceweekly archive →2012-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2012-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W03: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M3 ×2 policy_easing
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.10 -0.11 (2012-01-01 → 2012-01-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.01 → 3.00 -0.01 (2012-01-01 → 2012-01-14)
  • gdp: 3.40 → 2.80 -0.60 (2012-01-01 → 2012-01-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 53.90 +1.20 (2011-12-01 → 2012-01-03)
  • pmi_svc: 52.00 → 52.60 +0.60 (2011-12-05 → 2012-01-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-01-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.64 → 1.71 +0.07 (2011-12-30 → 2012-01-27)
  • unemployment: 8.30 → 8.50 +0.20 (2012-01-01 → 2012-01-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.89 → 1.93 +0.04 (2011-12-30 → 2012-01-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.22 -0.03 (2011-12-30 → 2012-01-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.20 → 4.10 -0.10 (2011-12-09 → 2012-01-12)
  • gdp: 9.10 → 8.90 -0.20 (2011-10-18 → 2012-01-17)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.53 -0.08 (2011-12-31 → 2012-01-29)
  • yield_10y: 3.42 → 3.38 -0.04 (2011-12-31 → 2012-01-29)
  • yield_2y: 2.81 → 2.85 +0.04 (2011-12-31 → 2012-01-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.70 -0.30 (2011-12-15 → 2012-01-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 48.70 +1.80 (2011-12-15 → 2012-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 48.30 → 50.50 +2.20 (2011-12-15 → 2012-01-24)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2011-12-08 → 2012-01-12)
  • unemployment: 10.30 → 10.30 0.00 (2011-11-30 → 2012-01-06)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -1.10 0.00 (2011-12-26 → 2012-01-25)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.20 +0.30 (2011-12-26 → 2012-01-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-12-21 → 2012-01-24)
  • unemployment: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2011-12-30 → 2012-01-29)

Busiest week: 2011-W52 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W02 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-01 vs 2011-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2011-W52

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W01

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W02

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W03

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W04

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change