Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2026-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2026-01daily glanceweekly archive →2026-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2026-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • cpi_yoy: 2.66 → 2.40 -0.26 (2026-02-01 → 2026-02-13)
  • fx: 96.99 → 97.80 +0.81 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
  • policy_rate: 3.75 → 3.75 0.00 (2026-02-01 → 2026-02-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.74 → 0.60 -0.14 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
  • yield_10y: 4.26 → 4.08 -0.18 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
  • yield_2y: 3.52 → 3.48 -0.04 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
China
  • fx: 6.95 → 6.91 -0.04 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.44 +0.00 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-14)
  • yield_10y: 1.81 → 1.79 -0.02 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-14)
  • yield_2y: 1.38 → 1.35 -0.02 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-14)
Euro area
  • fx: 1.20 → 1.18 -0.02 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.50 → 1.30 -0.20 (2026-01-23 → 2026-02-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 1.50 -0.60 (2026-01-23 → 2026-02-20)
  • fx: 153.16 → 155.16 +2.00 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-20)

Busiest week: 2026-W08 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2026-W05 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2026-02 vs 2026-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2026-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2026-W05

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2026-W06

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2026-W07

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2026-W08

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active