Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2025-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2025-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-Q3 vs 2025-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

W38: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M13 ×8 contraction_easing
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing

Euro area

M3 ×3 policy_easing
M5 ×2 growth_acceleration

Japan

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.22 -0.09 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
core_pce: 2.86 → 2.83 -0.03 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.74 → 2.90 +0.16 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-11)
fx: 97.18 → 98.15 +0.97 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-26)
gdp: 4.40 → 3.30 -1.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-08-28)
pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 48.70 -0.30 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
pmi_svc: 50.80 → 52.00 +1.20 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-04)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.25 -0.25 (2025-07-06 → 2025-09-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.57 +0.10 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-26)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.40 +0.30 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-01)
yield_10y: 4.35 → 4.20 -0.15 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-26)
yield_2y: 3.88 → 3.63 -0.25 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-26)

China

cpi_yoy: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2025-06-09 → 2025-08-09)
fx: 7.16 → 7.13 -0.03 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-26)
gdp: 5.40 → 5.20 -0.20 (2025-04-16 → 2025-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 49.80 +0.50 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.30 -0.20 (2025-06-30 → 2025-08-31)
policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-06-20 → 2025-09-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.37 +0.08 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-28)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.20 0.00 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
yield_10y: 1.64 → 1.88 +0.23 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-28)
yield_2y: 1.35 → 1.50 +0.15 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
fx: 1.18 → 1.17 -0.01 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-26)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 50.70 +1.20 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.50 0.00 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-03)
policy_rate: 2.15 → 2.15 0.00 (2025-06-05 → 2025-07-24)
unemployment: 6.30 → 6.20 -0.10 (2025-07-02 → 2025-09-01)
yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.23 +0.06 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2025-06-20 → 2025-09-19)
cpi_yoy: 3.50 → 2.70 -0.80 (2025-06-20 → 2025-09-19)
fx: 144.68 → 149.86 +5.18 (2025-07-04 → 2025-09-26)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2025-06-17 → 2025-07-31)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.30 -0.20 (2025-06-27 → 2025-08-29)
yield_10y: 1.54 → 1.65 +0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W27 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W31 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose