Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2025-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2025-07daily glanceweekly archive →2025-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2025-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
W33: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.30 -0.01 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-12)
  • core_pce: 2.91 → 2.90 -0.01 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.94 → 2.70 -0.24 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-12)
  • fx: 98.69 → 97.77 -0.92 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • gdp: 3.00 → 3.30 +0.30 (2025-07-30 → 2025-08-28)
  • pmi_svc: 50.80 → 50.10 -0.70 (2025-07-03 → 2025-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2025-08-03 → 2025-08-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.54 → 0.64 +0.10 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • yield_10y: 4.23 → 4.23 0.00 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • yield_2y: 3.69 → 3.59 -0.10 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.00 -0.10 (2025-07-09 → 2025-08-09)
  • fx: 7.20 → 7.15 -0.05 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • pmi_svc: 50.10 → 50.30 +0.20 (2025-07-31 → 2025-08-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-07-21 → 2025-08-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.28 → 0.43 +0.15 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • yield_10y: 1.71 → 1.84 +0.13 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • yield_2y: 1.43 → 1.40 -0.02 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-20)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.17 +0.03 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • gdp: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.80 → 50.50 +0.70 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-21)
  • pmi_svc: 51.20 → 50.70 -0.50 (2025-07-24 → 2025-08-21)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2025-07-18 → 2025-08-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.30 → 3.10 -0.20 (2025-07-18 → 2025-08-22)
  • fx: 150.77 → 146.79 -3.98 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.30 -0.20 (2025-08-01 → 2025-08-29)

Busiest week: 2025-W34 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W31 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-08 vs 2025-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2025-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W34

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W35

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change