Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2025-09

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2025-08daily glanceweekly archive →2025-10 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2025-09 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
W38: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
China
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • cpi_yoy: 3.02 → 2.90 -0.12 (2025-09-01 → 2025-09-11)
  • fx: 97.77 → 98.15 +0.38 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.25 -0.25 (2025-09-07 → 2025-09-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.59 → 0.57 -0.02 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
  • yield_10y: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.51 → 3.63 +0.12 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
China
  • fx: 7.14 → 7.13 -0.01 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
  • policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-08-20 → 2025-09-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.37 -0.04 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-28)
  • yield_10y: 1.83 → 1.88 +0.05 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-28)
  • yield_2y: 1.41 → 1.50 +0.10 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-28)
Euro area
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.17 +0.00 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2025-08-22 → 2025-09-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.10 → 2.70 -0.40 (2025-08-22 → 2025-09-19)
  • fx: 148.38 → 149.86 +1.49 (2025-09-05 → 2025-09-26)

Busiest week: 2025-W36 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W36 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-09 vs 2025-08, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-09).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2025-W36

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W37

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W38

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2025-W39

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change