Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2025-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glanceweekly archive →
Half-year

2025-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-H2 vs 2025-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
W29: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W31: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle · W33: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W36: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle · W51: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×21 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
China
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M3 ×3 policy_easing
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M9 ×13 yield_spike
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.23 -0.08 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)
  • core_pce: 2.86 → 2.97 +0.11 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.74 → 2.70 -0.04 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-18)
  • fx: 97.18 → 98.02 +0.84 (2025-07-03 → 2025-12-26)
  • gdp: 4.40 → 0.50 -3.90 (2025-07-01 → 2025-10-01)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 48.70 -0.30 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
  • pmi_svc: 50.80 → 52.00 +1.20 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-04)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 3.75 -0.75 (2025-07-06 → 2025-12-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.68 +0.21 (2025-07-03 → 2025-12-26)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.40 +0.30 (2025-07-03 → 2025-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 4.35 → 4.14 -0.21 (2025-07-03 → 2025-12-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.88 → 3.46 -0.42 (2025-07-03 → 2025-12-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2025-06-09 → 2025-08-09)
  • fx: 7.16 → 7.03 -0.14 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
  • gdp: 5.40 → 5.20 -0.20 (2025-04-16 → 2025-07-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.10 +0.80 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.30 -0.20 (2025-06-30 → 2025-08-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-06-20 → 2025-12-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.50 +0.21 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.10 -0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 1.64 → 1.84 +0.19 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
  • yield_2y: 1.35 → 1.34 -0.02 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
  • fx: 1.18 → 1.18 +0.00 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-02)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 50.70 +1.20 (2025-07-01 → 2025-09-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.50 0.00 (2025-07-03 → 2025-09-03)
  • policy_rate: 2.15 → 2.15 0.00 (2025-06-05 → 2025-07-24)
  • unemployment: 6.30 → 6.20 -0.10 (2025-07-02 → 2025-09-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.24 +0.07 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2025-06-20 → 2025-12-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.50 → 2.90 -0.60 (2025-06-20 → 2025-12-19)
  • fx: 144.68 → 156.09 +11.41 (2025-07-04 → 2025-12-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2025-06-17 → 2025-07-31)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2025-06-27 → 2025-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.54 → 2.06 +0.52 (2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W27 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W31 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2025-Q3
quarterly board
2025-Q4
quarterly board