Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2025-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2025-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-Q4 vs 2025-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

W51: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

W43: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M13 ×13 contraction_easing

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M9 ×9 yield_spike
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.23 +0.01 (2025-09-01 → 2025-12-01)
core_pce: 2.75 → 2.97 +0.22 (2025-10-01 → 2025-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.70 -0.20 (2025-09-11 → 2025-12-18)
fx: 97.72 → 98.02 +0.30 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
policy_rate: 4.25 → 3.75 -0.50 (2025-10-05 → 2025-12-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.55 → 0.68 +0.13 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
unemployment: 4.40 → 4.40 0.00 (2025-09-01 → 2025-12-01)
yield_10y: 4.13 → 4.14 +0.01 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
yield_2y: 3.58 → 3.46 -0.12 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)

China

fx: 7.12 → 7.03 -0.09 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 50.10 +1.10 (2025-10-01 → 2025-12-01)
policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-09-22 → 2025-12-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.37 → 0.50 +0.13 (2025-09-30 → 2025-12-26)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.10 0.00 (2025-10-01 → 2025-12-01)
yield_10y: 1.86 → 1.84 -0.02 (2025-09-30 → 2025-12-26)
yield_2y: 1.49 → 1.34 -0.16 (2025-09-30 → 2025-12-26)

Euro area

fx: 1.17 → 1.18 +0.01 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
yield_10y: 3.12 → 3.24 +0.12 (2025-10-01 → 2025-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2025-09-19 → 2025-12-19)
cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.90 +0.20 (2025-09-19 → 2025-12-19)
fx: 147.15 → 156.09 +8.94 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2025-10-03 → 2025-12-26)
yield_10y: 1.66 → 2.06 +0.41 (2025-10-01 → 2025-12-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W49 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W40 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose