Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2025-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2025-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-H1 vs 2024-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W09: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W11: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W14: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W13: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M3 ×26 policy_easing
  • M13 ×13 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M9 ×17 yield_spike
  • M4 ×8 policy_tightening
  • M12 ×8 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.43 → 0.10 -0.33 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-11)
  • core_pce: 2.78 → 2.70 -0.08 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.99 → 2.40 -0.59 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-11)
  • fx: 108.95 → 97.40 -11.55 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • gdp: -0.60 → -0.50 +0.10 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-26)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 48.50 -0.80 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-02)
  • pmi_svc: 52.10 → 49.90 -2.20 (2024-12-04 → 2025-06-04)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2025-01-05 → 2025-06-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.56 +0.24 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 4.20 +0.20 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-06)
  • yield_10y: 4.60 → 4.29 -0.31 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • yield_2y: 4.28 → 3.73 -0.55 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.10 -0.30 (2024-12-09 → 2025-06-09)
  • fx: 7.30 → 7.17 -0.13 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • gdp: 4.60 → 5.40 +0.80 (2024-10-18 → 2025-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.10 → 49.70 +0.60 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 52.20 → 50.30 -1.90 (2024-12-31 → 2025-05-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.10 → 3.00 -0.10 (2024-12-20 → 2025-06-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.58 → 0.29 -0.30 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.00 -0.20 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 1.60 → 1.65 +0.04 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.02 → 1.36 +0.34 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 1.90 -0.30 (2024-12-18 → 2025-06-18)
  • fx: 1.03 → 1.17 +0.14 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.00 +0.30 (2024-12-18 → 2025-06-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.10 → 49.40 +4.30 (2025-01-02 → 2025-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 51.40 → 50.00 -1.40 (2024-12-16 → 2025-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 3.15 → 2.15 -1.00 (2024-12-12 → 2025-06-05)
  • unemployment: 6.30 → 6.20 -0.10 (2024-12-02 → 2025-06-03)
  • yield_10y: 3.09 → 3.08 -0.00 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.60 -0.10 (2024-12-20 → 2025-06-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 3.50 +0.60 (2024-12-20 → 2025-06-20)
  • fx: 157.36 → 144.69 -12.67 (2025-01-03 → 2025-06-27)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2024-12-19 → 2025-06-17)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2024-12-27 → 2025-06-27)
  • yield_10y: 1.25 → 1.42 +0.17 (2025-01-01 → 2025-06-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W04 (9 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W26 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2025-Q1
quarterly board
2025-Q2
quarterly board