Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2025-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2025-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-Q1 vs 2024-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W13: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×13 policy_easing
M13 ×10 contraction_easing
M9 ×9 yield_spike

Japan

M9 ×13 yield_spike
M4 ×8 policy_tightening
M12 ×8 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.43 → 0.20 -0.23 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-12)
core_pce: 2.78 → 2.80 +0.02 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-28)
cpi_yoy: 2.99 → 2.80 -0.19 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-12)
fx: 108.95 → 104.04 -4.91 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
gdp: -0.60 → 2.40 +3.00 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-27)
pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.30 +1.00 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-03)
pmi_svc: 52.10 → 53.50 +1.40 (2024-12-04 → 2025-03-05)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2025-01-05 → 2025-03-30)
slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.38 +0.06 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
unemployment: 4.00 → 4.10 +0.10 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-07)
yield_10y: 4.60 → 4.27 -0.33 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
yield_2y: 4.28 → 3.89 -0.39 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.70 -0.90 (2024-12-09 → 2025-03-09)
fx: 7.30 → 7.26 -0.04 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
gdp: 4.60 → 5.40 +0.80 (2024-10-18 → 2025-01-17)
pmi_mfg: 49.10 → 50.50 +1.40 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-01)
pmi_svc: 52.20 → 50.40 -1.80 (2024-12-31 → 2025-03-01)
policy_rate: 3.10 → 3.10 0.00 (2024-12-20 → 2025-03-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.58 → 0.28 -0.30 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.20 0.00 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-01)
yield_10y: 1.60 → 1.81 +0.21 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
yield_2y: 1.02 → 1.53 +0.51 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.30 +0.10 (2024-12-18 → 2025-03-19)
fx: 1.03 → 1.08 +0.05 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
gdp: -0.30 → 0.40 +0.70 (2024-12-18 → 2025-03-19)
pmi_mfg: 45.10 → 48.70 +3.60 (2025-01-02 → 2025-03-24)
pmi_svc: 51.40 → 50.40 -1.00 (2024-12-16 → 2025-03-24)
policy_rate: 3.15 → 2.65 -0.50 (2024-12-12 → 2025-03-06)
unemployment: 6.30 → 6.20 -0.10 (2024-12-02 → 2025-03-04)
yield_10y: 3.09 → 3.31 +0.23 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.50 -0.20 (2024-12-20 → 2025-03-21)
cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 3.70 +0.80 (2024-12-20 → 2025-03-21)
fx: 157.36 → 150.85 -6.51 (2025-01-03 → 2025-03-28)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2024-12-19 → 2025-03-19)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2024-12-27 → 2025-03-04)
yield_10y: 1.25 → 1.49 +0.24 (2025-01-01 → 2025-03-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W04 (9 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W12 (4 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose