Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2025-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2025-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-Q2 vs 2025-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M3 ×13 policy_easing
M13 ×3 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.24 → 0.10 -0.14 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-11)
core_pce: 2.61 → 2.70 +0.09 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-27)
cpi_yoy: 2.33 → 2.40 +0.07 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-11)
fx: 103.02 → 97.40 -5.62 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
gdp: 3.80 → -0.50 -4.30 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-26)
pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 48.50 -0.50 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-02)
pmi_svc: 50.80 → 49.90 -0.90 (2025-04-03 → 2025-06-04)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2025-04-06 → 2025-06-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.56 +0.23 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
unemployment: 4.20 → 4.20 0.00 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-06)
yield_10y: 4.01 → 4.29 +0.28 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
yield_2y: 3.68 → 3.73 +0.05 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)

China

cpi_yoy: -0.70 → -0.10 +0.60 (2025-03-09 → 2025-06-09)
fx: 7.27 → 7.17 -0.10 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
gdp: 5.40 → 5.40 0.00 (2025-01-17 → 2025-04-16)
pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 49.70 +0.70 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-01)
pmi_svc: 50.80 → 50.30 -0.50 (2025-03-31 → 2025-05-31)
policy_rate: 3.10 → 3.00 -0.10 (2025-03-20 → 2025-06-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.23 → 0.29 +0.05 (2025-04-03 → 2025-06-27)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.00 -0.10 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-01)
yield_10y: 1.72 → 1.65 -0.07 (2025-04-03 → 2025-06-27)
yield_2y: 1.49 → 1.36 -0.12 (2025-04-03 → 2025-06-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 1.90 -0.30 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-18)
fx: 1.10 → 1.17 +0.06 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
gdp: 0.60 → 0.00 -0.60 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-18)
pmi_mfg: 48.60 → 49.40 +0.80 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-23)
pmi_svc: 51.00 → 50.00 -1.00 (2025-04-03 → 2025-06-23)
policy_rate: 2.65 → 2.15 -0.50 (2025-03-06 → 2025-06-05)
unemployment: 6.10 → 6.20 +0.10 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-03)
yield_10y: 3.10 → 3.08 -0.01 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.50 → 1.60 +0.10 (2025-03-21 → 2025-06-20)
cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 3.50 -0.20 (2025-03-21 → 2025-06-20)
fx: 146.23 → 144.69 -1.54 (2025-04-04 → 2025-06-27)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2025-03-19 → 2025-06-17)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2025-03-04 → 2025-06-27)
yield_10y: 1.31 → 1.42 +0.11 (2025-04-01 → 2025-06-01)

Busiest week: 2025-W21 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W26 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose