Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2025-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2025-03daily glanceweekly archive →2025-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2025-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.24 → 0.10 -0.14 (2025-04-01 → 2025-04-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.33 → 2.40 +0.07 (2025-04-01 → 2025-04-10)
  • fx: 103.02 → 99.47 -3.55 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2025-04-06 → 2025-04-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.55 +0.22 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
  • yield_10y: 4.01 → 4.29 +0.28 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.68 → 3.74 +0.06 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.70 → -0.10 +0.60 (2025-03-09 → 2025-04-10)
  • fx: 7.27 → 7.29 +0.02 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
  • gdp: 5.40 → 5.40 0.00 (2025-01-17 → 2025-04-16)
  • policy_rate: 3.10 → 3.10 0.00 (2025-03-20 → 2025-04-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.23 → 0.18 -0.05 (2025-04-03 → 2025-04-27)
  • yield_10y: 1.72 → 1.66 -0.06 (2025-04-03 → 2025-04-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.49 → 1.48 -0.01 (2025-04-03 → 2025-04-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2025-04-01 → 2025-04-16)
  • fx: 1.10 → 1.14 +0.03 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)
  • gdp: 0.60 → 0.60 0.00 (2025-04-01 → 2025-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.60 → 48.70 +0.10 (2025-04-01 → 2025-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 51.00 → 49.70 -1.30 (2025-04-03 → 2025-04-23)
  • policy_rate: 2.65 → 2.40 -0.25 (2025-03-06 → 2025-04-17)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.50 → 1.60 +0.10 (2025-03-21 → 2025-04-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 3.60 -0.10 (2025-03-21 → 2025-04-18)
  • fx: 146.23 → 142.88 -3.35 (2025-04-04 → 2025-04-25)

Busiest week: 2025-W14 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2025-W14 (3 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2025-04 vs 2025-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2025-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2025-W14

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · easing
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W15

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · easing
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · easing
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2025-W17

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · easing
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change