Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2024-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2024-11daily glanceweekly archive →2025-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2024-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W49: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W50: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W51: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M3 ×5 policy_easing
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.30 +0.11 (2024-12-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • core_pce: 2.99 → 2.80 -0.19 (2024-12-01 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.87 → 2.70 -0.17 (2024-12-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • fx: 105.74 → 108.00 +2.26 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 2.80 → 3.10 +0.30 (2024-11-27 → 2024-12-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.50 → 48.40 +1.90 (2024-11-01 → 2024-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 56.00 → 52.10 -3.90 (2024-11-05 → 2024-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 4.75 → 4.50 -0.25 (2024-12-01 → 2024-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.05 → 0.31 +0.26 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2024-12-01 → 2024-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 4.18 → 4.62 +0.44 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 4.13 → 4.31 +0.18 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2024-11-09 → 2024-12-09)
  • fx: 7.24 → 7.30 +0.05 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • policy_rate: 3.10 → 3.10 0.00 (2024-11-20 → 2024-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.65 → 0.56 -0.09 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 2.02 → 1.69 -0.33 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.37 → 1.13 -0.24 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.20 -0.10 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-18)
  • fx: 1.06 → 1.04 -0.01 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.20 → 45.20 0.00 (2024-11-22 → 2024-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 49.20 → 51.40 +2.20 (2024-11-22 → 2024-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 3.40 → 3.15 -0.25 (2024-10-17 → 2024-12-12)
  • unemployment: 6.30 → 6.30 0.00 (2024-10-31 → 2024-12-02)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.70 +0.10 (2024-11-22 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.90 +0.60 (2024-11-22 → 2024-12-20)
  • fx: 151.17 → 157.75 +6.57 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2024-10-31 → 2024-12-19)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2024-11-29 → 2024-12-27)

Busiest week: 2024-W48 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W49 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-12 vs 2024-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2024-W48

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2024-W49

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2024-W50

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2024-W51

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2024-W52

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change